Covid-19: Who’s at Risk and Why?
Estimate reading time: 20-30 minutes
Did you know that most relatively healthy people, particularly if they are young, will survive covid-19? Admitting this is not meant to negate the seriousness of the dis-ease (we have sadly lost many lives and our worlds have forever been changed) however, it is factually true. According to the World Health Organization's Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, "about 80% of the people who catch COVID-19 develop mild symptoms".” A simple Google search about this will direct you to many other studies with very similar claims; though the numbers slightly vary, it is always a high percentage rate demonstrating that most healthy people that catch covid will not only survive but have mild symptoms. This is a great time to remember that CDC told us in the beginning of the pandemic that at least 40% of people are asymptomatic, meaning they may not even realize they have the virus because they won't experience any symptoms (according to Healthline, various researchers say this number ranges between 25-80%).
Do you realize just how extreme the age skew is with covid-deaths? Yes, we have been told that elderly folks are more vulnerable but it's rarely communicated in mainstream news just how significant the gap is when it comes to adverse outcomes. Let's, for now, simply use data directly from the CDC: compared to someone between the ages of 18-29, people 50-64 are 25x more likely to die; 65-74, 65x more likely; 75-84, 150x more likely; 85+ are 370x more likely to die. According to the CDC’s latest mortality review, people over the age of 65 account for 74.8% of all covid-deaths while people under the age of 45 represent 4.1% of total covid-deaths since the onset of the pandemic. An analysis of British data by the Financial Times concluded that a vaccinated 80-year-old has about the same mortality risk as an unvaccinated 50-year-old, and an unvaccinated 30-year-old has a lower risk than a vaccinated 45-year-old.
Regarding risk, it is imperative to bring one’s base level of health into the equation. For 5% of deaths related to covid, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned while 95% of people that died from covid had at least one underlying condition; on average, people that sadly passed away from covid had 4 or more comorbidities. A study published in mBio, which analyzed global databases containing 375,859 participants from 14 countries, identified hypertension as the most common comorbidity in COVID-19 patients followed by obesity and diabetes. It’s worth noting that according to a CDC study of underlying medical conditions and severe illness among 540,667 adults hospitalized with COVID-19 between March 2020–March 2021, fear and anxiety was the second highest observed comorbidity with the likelihood of death 28% higher.
What's the purpose behind mentioning these numbers? First, let's go back to the fact that vaccines do not necessarily prevent transmission--in fact, similar amounts of viral genetic material have been found among both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people for people infected with the Delta variant; the CDC did share, however, that fully vaccinated people appear to spread the virus for a slightly shorter amount of time than unvaccinated people without prior infection (on average, about 3 days). We have been told that vaccines were not created to necessarily prevent transmission but instead to reduce hospitalization and death (this appears to be more of an updated marketing strategy after so-called "rare" breakthrough cases were called out as they began to pileup). If this is true, as we have been told by the CDC and other officials, what is the true justification for a vaccine mandate when statistics clearly demonstrate that not everyone has risk of hospitalization or death due to COVID-19? Considering the extremely disproportionate gap in vulnerability, does it truly make sense that we would all need the same treatment?
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Did you know that a study conducted by Harvard determined that recent increases in COVID-19 are completely unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States? The primary author made it clear that this was not to undermine the vaccine’s effectiveness but instead to illuminate that other mitigation strategies are needed beyond vaccines—this is a claim that many other experts make, noting that covid-19 is likely here to stay and we will have to learn to live with the virus. Another simple google search will show that many of the richest countries with the highest vaccination rates also have some of the highest cases, hospitalizations, and deaths related to covid-19 compared to lower-income countries, like India and South Africa, with significantly lower vaccination rates—India is particularly interesting in comparison as it has almost 4 times the population of the u.s. (1.38 billion vs 329.5 million) but only half the amount of covid-deaths (477,000 vs 815,000) ; it’s important to acknowledge that in wealthy countries like the u.s., people of color and working-class people are disproportionately impacted by covid-19 due to health disparity which is rarely, if ever, truly acknowledged. Vaccine equity continues to be a major issue that has been frustratingly neglected by many mainstream news outlets and public officials. The conversation has picked up recently due to the discovery of the Omicron variant which prompted many wealthy countries to shut their borders and hoard even more vaccines to “boost” their citizens against the new “threat”—so far, despite what appears to be possibly a higher transmission rate, many Omicron cases have been noted as mild. Recently, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called out the "scandal" of booster shots saying: “it makes no sense to give boosters to healthy adults, or to vaccinate children, when health workers, older people and other high-risk groups around the world are still waiting for their first dose,” noting that immunocompromised people are an exception.
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Perhaps long-covid could be another justification for officials to mandate the vaccine but even this, according to numerous studies, is somewhat rare for folks under 50, affecting around 10% of people within that population. In regards to long-covid, it is important to note folks with asthma, which was the only clear link to an underlying condition, are more susceptible. A study by Imperial College London “also found that long Covid tended to increase with age (it found a 3.5% increase in persistent symptoms with every decade of life) and was more likely to affect women… higher among people who are overweight or obese, who smoke, live in deprived areas or had severe Covid illness and needed to be admitted to hospital.” According to a study by the The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, about 5% of children have symptoms that last about 4 weeks with almost all (98%) recovering within 8 weeks. Most symptoms are noted as mild and include fatigue, headaches, headaches, dizziness, brain fog, abdominal issues and shortness of breath, among others.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, mainstream news has routinely perpetuated unjustifiable fear regarding covid by strategically using language that can make it appear as if we all have similar susceptibility--which is NOT true. The conversation is often simplified to vaccinated vs. unvaccinated missing the intricate nuances of the truth of the matter; the u.s. never truly discusses natural immunity which is backed up by various scientific studies and is recognized in most of Europe as an option to receive a covid passport—a blog on natural immunity will be coming shortly. AGAIN, this is not to discredit the seriousness of this virus nor the fear/concern/grief that we collectively have had to navigate in these challenging times. However, this is a call to critical thinking based in the actual science so we can have a truthful conversation.
What's the true reason for vaccine mandates? Is it truly about optimizing health and protecting human life? If this is about optimizing health, then why is diet, exercise, proper sleep, and other observed supportive lifestyle habits (according to the CDC ) so rarely, if ever, mentioned? Furthermore, why has there not been more focus on early intervention which could have prevented countless unnecessary deaths? Why are monoclonal antibodies still being underutilized when they have been shown to cut hospitalization up to 70% in high-risk unvaccinated patients? Why are there still doctors that have not heard of monoclonal antibodies as a treatment for covid though it received emergency use authorization back in November of 2020? Could financial motivation have anything to do with how limited and controlled the conversation has been regarding covid-19?
*Disclaimer: the purpose of this article was to provide a general risk assessment as again, we do not all share the same vulnerabilities in regards to covid-19. i want to be clear that this blog is not meant to discredit the effectiveness that we’ve been shown with the vaccine nor am i trying to convince anyone of a decision they should make for themselves. However, i am against mandates—many medical experts and scientists are too—for a variety of reasons, some named above.
